AN ECONOMIC STUDY OF THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE PRODUCTIVITY OF THE MOST IMPORTANT STRATEGIC CROPS IN EGYPTIAN AGRICULTURE

The research studied the impact of climatic changes on the productivity of the most important strategic crops in Egyptian Agriculture, with the aim of determining the extent to which productivity has changed due to climate change by using the Autoregressive Distributed lagged methodology (ARDL), where it was found that there is an inverse relationship between climate changes and the productivity of the maize crop, a relationship that is consistent with the economic logic as shown: Stability of some variables of the estimated models, at the zero level, while some of them stabilized at the first difference, there is no degree of integration of the second degree, so the estimation conditions were applied, using the (ARDL). There is a long-term equilibrium relationship between climate changes and the productivity of the maize crop, as its estimated significance has been proven. The value of the error correction coefficient was about (0.650) for the maize crop, which indicates that when the productivity of the maize crop deviates from the equilibrium value during the short term, the speed of Its return to the equilibrium value in the long run, which is about 65% for the maize crop from imbalance, until it reaches equilibrium after about 1.4 years to return the long-term equilibrium position.  The study showed an inverse relationship between climate changes and the productivity of the maize crop in the long term, where an increase in maximum temperatures by 1% leads to decrease in the productivity of the maize crop, by about 0.07%, which is consistent with economic theory.
The study recommended were the necessity of selecting of genetically improved, high-yielding varieties and seeds that can withstand climatic changes, drought and humidity. Use the modern technology to store the grains to reduce the waste of storage. Depend on the early warning systems for sudden weather changes to achieve the food security. Expand of the green economy projects and environmentally friendly projects. Establish the economic policies to take into account adaptation the climate changes. Uses of the optimum available water resources.